Notes on the Start of the Second Half (Rich)

First off, the P-G has a nice piece this morning that discusses why the Cleveland Browns v.2.0 have struggled. It's crazy, as someone who grew up in the Kosar era, that the Ravens and Bengals have each in turn passed the men from the Land of Cleve as our primary rivals. Really, it seems to come down to poor personnel decisions: Couch over McNabb, Courtney Brown and Gerard Warren over anyone, Winslow over the handlebars, etc.

In breaking news, we cut Weegie-bugaboo Willie Williams this morning to elevate Matt Kranchick and have two healthy tight ends tonight. Willie had been passed by the whole slew of youngsters at the position, particularly fast-rising #2 pick Bryant McFadden, and had been a healthy scratch for the last several weeks. Willie did yeoman's work for us last year, but may have been the biggest part of why we were torched deep repeatedly in the AFC Championship Game. Ironically, he'll probably be picked up on Monday by the Patriots, where he might be starting within 3 weeks. Meanwhile, I fully expect that the Browns will key on The Heath Bar, and Kranchick will get open for his first career TD tonight.

Finally, I've got to respond to Weegie's playoff math. For a team to miss the playoffs in the AFC at 12-4, both quality and zaniness on an unprecedented scale would have to happen over the final 8 weeks. At least three non-division winners would have to finish at least 12-4. There are only four non-division leaders right now who don't have 5 losses already: the Pitt/Cincy loser, Jacksonville, KC, and San Diego. San Diego already has 4 losses, so we would need all but one of the following to happen: Pittsburgh goes at least 6-2, Cincy goes at least 5-2, Jacksonville goes at least 7-1, K.C. goes at least 7-1, San Diego goes 8-0. Plus, all that would have to happen while Indy and Denver maintained their division leads, or lost their division leads while going no worse than 12-4 overall--so let's add to the list: Indy goes at least 4-4, and Denver goes at least 6-2. Now add the fact that every divisional matchup in that mess still has a second game to be played, plus Indy still has to play Pittsburgh, Cincy, and San Diego. That's at least 8 losses to be accounted for on one side of the ledger or the other. Bottom line: it probably can't happen, and it definitely won't happen.

Here's how I see it playing out:

• Indy cruises to the #1 seed at 13-3 or 14-2
• New England gets the #4 seed by default, at 9-7 if it's lucky
• The Pittsburgh/Cincy rematch winner takes the division at 12-4, although even if we lose the rematch, we might beat out Cincy thanks to a craptacular schedule featuring the Browns twice, the Ravens, and 3 more Norris teams, while Cincy has to go to KC, and we both have to deal with the Colts and each other. The non-winner gets the #5.
• Someone, don't ask me who, emerges in the West and gets the #3. Someone else in the West maintains and battles Jacksonville for the #6. Someone fades and gets nothing. (OK, if you twist my arm: KC emerges, Denver maintains, San Diego fades--largely based on schedule, plus KC's football karma for the end of the Oakland game, plus I always presume the Shanahan/Plummer combo will blow it.)
• The third team in the West might get shut out at 10-6, but I think it's more likely they fall to 8-8
• Jacksonville is the hardest team for me to deal with. They don't seem like better than a 10-6 team, but Matt Leinart has a tougher schedule than what the Jags face. They have the least daunting 3-week road trip in NFL history (at TEN, at AZ, at CLE), they also go to Houston, and they host Tennessee, San Fran, and Baltimore. Their one game with a contender is hosting Indy. I suspect they'll blow it somehow and fight some West team for the #6 slot at 10-6. But man, I can also see them running the table and putting the fear of God into Indy if Indy loses to Pittsburgh and Cincy. If they go 7-1 or 8-0 down the stretch as they very well could, and the Pittsburgh/Cincy winner gets the other wild card, this could be the most competitive AFC playoffs since...well, I gotta go back to 2004-05.

--rich erenberg