More about 'More (Rich)

I'm pretty much with Weegie as far as identifying the key offensive storylines this week. I'm also happy about the possibility that the offense can get 13 and we might still win handily. Or, even more conservatively, the offense can get 6, the defense can get 7, and we can win with the same 13.

On the other hand, there are things I really want to see out of the offense. I want to see if Tommy Maddox can snap out of it on the road where he'll hear fewer boos. I want to see if we give Randle El one designed series the way we used to give Kordell when he first started. I want to see if Tommy got the memo about Heath Miller being really useful. I want to know if anyone but Weegie and I had noticed the Randle El semicircular reverse thing--which, admittedly, served him well on the TD to Hines. I want to know if we could make Cedric Wilson's head explode by throwing three passes to Quincy Morgan and two to Jerame Tuman. I want to see Verron Haynes' face when he reads an article about our "three-headed running back" and how many phone calls national and local reporters have gotten from a mysterious "Mr. VH" pointing out that #34 is the only halfback who's been active for every game. I want to see if the no-huddle is going to continue working to get Tommy going. I want to see what the message boards look like this week if Tommy throws for 426 yards and 4 TDs.

Finally, what I really want to see is a healthy #7 under center in 9 nights.

--rich erenberg

Deep 13 offense, and how to not use it. (Weegie)

The story floating around the city this week was of course, "Crap, now what do we do?" Nobody's exactly looking forward to the notion of the Tommy Maddox start, but there is the realization that, if we want Ben to play in January, it's probably good to keep him away from the team that wouldn't mind going off Reichenbach Falls if it took its mortal enemy with them. So we find the story rife with B plots. Will Tommy recover after the Jaguars game? Signs say we hope so, he'll have a better cast to go with this time. Are we going to let the Ravens do what they nearly did on Halloween? Signs say we hope not, and our chief ally in this is Kyle Boller, a man who can't be the modern Vinny against the Steelers, simply because he's the modern Vinny against every other team as well. But the absolute riveting story this week was the possibility of us going with Randle El at QB. He's going in as the 3rd string this week, and there was some notion that him starting would be savvy, as it sounds like Marvel Smith won't be on line offering protection, so mobility would be useful. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a couple trick plays here, and that's what worries me. This is the type of situation where we get cute, and die. We made our mint in the Mularkey era with the occasional gimmick, maybe one a game, go to two of these, and it's something people expect. And Randle El right now, is what people would expect.

I also don't like the angle Randle El typically takes on reverses, he seems to run almost a perfect semi-circle, which means he's too far back at the time when the defense realizes what's up. Contrast this with Hines, who used to run a far less deep reverse, which was usually far more effective than anything 82's generated on that play. And if I remember correctly, the worst example of this recently was Halloween against the same Ravens.

This week would be perfect for the crazy trick play only designed to get force the Ravens to call a time out. Put Randle El and Ward in the backfield, Miller and Max Starks as tight ends, Parker or Polamalu on the wing. Something so blatantly completely insane that the defense for it doesn't exist, and the other team has no choice but to call a time out to deal with it.

Otherwise, I think the best course of action this week is grind, grind, grind. Run, run, run, switch out and put the next runner in. If you pass, play the safe, quick routes. The key here is keeping ahead, making few mistakes, and protect your possible losses if a mistake happens. Ugly but effective.

Notes on the Start of the Second Half (Rich)

First off, the P-G has a nice piece this morning that discusses why the Cleveland Browns v.2.0 have struggled. It's crazy, as someone who grew up in the Kosar era, that the Ravens and Bengals have each in turn passed the men from the Land of Cleve as our primary rivals. Really, it seems to come down to poor personnel decisions: Couch over McNabb, Courtney Brown and Gerard Warren over anyone, Winslow over the handlebars, etc.

In breaking news, we cut Weegie-bugaboo Willie Williams this morning to elevate Matt Kranchick and have two healthy tight ends tonight. Willie had been passed by the whole slew of youngsters at the position, particularly fast-rising #2 pick Bryant McFadden, and had been a healthy scratch for the last several weeks. Willie did yeoman's work for us last year, but may have been the biggest part of why we were torched deep repeatedly in the AFC Championship Game. Ironically, he'll probably be picked up on Monday by the Patriots, where he might be starting within 3 weeks. Meanwhile, I fully expect that the Browns will key on The Heath Bar, and Kranchick will get open for his first career TD tonight.

Finally, I've got to respond to Weegie's playoff math. For a team to miss the playoffs in the AFC at 12-4, both quality and zaniness on an unprecedented scale would have to happen over the final 8 weeks. At least three non-division winners would have to finish at least 12-4. There are only four non-division leaders right now who don't have 5 losses already: the Pitt/Cincy loser, Jacksonville, KC, and San Diego. San Diego already has 4 losses, so we would need all but one of the following to happen: Pittsburgh goes at least 6-2, Cincy goes at least 5-2, Jacksonville goes at least 7-1, K.C. goes at least 7-1, San Diego goes 8-0. Plus, all that would have to happen while Indy and Denver maintained their division leads, or lost their division leads while going no worse than 12-4 overall--so let's add to the list: Indy goes at least 4-4, and Denver goes at least 6-2. Now add the fact that every divisional matchup in that mess still has a second game to be played, plus Indy still has to play Pittsburgh, Cincy, and San Diego. That's at least 8 losses to be accounted for on one side of the ledger or the other. Bottom line: it probably can't happen, and it definitely won't happen.

Here's how I see it playing out:

• Indy cruises to the #1 seed at 13-3 or 14-2
• New England gets the #4 seed by default, at 9-7 if it's lucky
• The Pittsburgh/Cincy rematch winner takes the division at 12-4, although even if we lose the rematch, we might beat out Cincy thanks to a craptacular schedule featuring the Browns twice, the Ravens, and 3 more Norris teams, while Cincy has to go to KC, and we both have to deal with the Colts and each other. The non-winner gets the #5.
• Someone, don't ask me who, emerges in the West and gets the #3. Someone else in the West maintains and battles Jacksonville for the #6. Someone fades and gets nothing. (OK, if you twist my arm: KC emerges, Denver maintains, San Diego fades--largely based on schedule, plus KC's football karma for the end of the Oakland game, plus I always presume the Shanahan/Plummer combo will blow it.)
• The third team in the West might get shut out at 10-6, but I think it's more likely they fall to 8-8
• Jacksonville is the hardest team for me to deal with. They don't seem like better than a 10-6 team, but Matt Leinart has a tougher schedule than what the Jags face. They have the least daunting 3-week road trip in NFL history (at TEN, at AZ, at CLE), they also go to Houston, and they host Tennessee, San Fran, and Baltimore. Their one game with a contender is hosting Indy. I suspect they'll blow it somehow and fight some West team for the #6 slot at 10-6. But man, I can also see them running the table and putting the fear of God into Indy if Indy loses to Pittsburgh and Cincy. If they go 7-1 or 8-0 down the stretch as they very well could, and the Pittsburgh/Cincy winner gets the other wild card, this could be the most competitive AFC playoffs since...well, I gotta go back to 2004-05.

--rich erenberg

The halfway point (Weegie)

Okay, let's update our estimates from the Quarter Pole.

Indianapolis - Still Real, still holding the lead. Is it going to be 16, 15, or 14 at the end?
Denver - Apparently I was wrong, though I'm still struggling to see how this team rolls through the second half like the first.
Cincinnati - Ahead of the Steelers on a quirk of schedule which should evaporate this weekend. The Steelers-Bengals game II will basically establish whether they're going to be dangerous in the playoffs or on the outside looking in.
New England - At this point I think we know their fate: They'll be the 4th seed. The only question is not who do they face in the first round. The only question now, will they at least make it competitive and get to 8-8.
Kansas City - With Priest out, does this make them vulnerable to being caught by the Chargers. Given their second half schedule, I think they will be.
Jacksonville - They're in as a wildcard. Their opponents between now and then: BAL, CLE, HOU, ARI, TEN, TEN, SF, IND. I can certainly see 12-4 for them.
San Diego - They may catch the Chiefs, but unless they catch the Broncos it doesn't matter. In fact, unless they go undefeated, it won't matter. The way it stacks up right now, 11-5 makes you the 7th best team in the conference, and that won't cut it.

Which leaves us with Pittsburgh. If the Steelers play mistake free football, we're looking at 14-2, 2nd seed. If they don't we're looking at as low as 12-4, 6th seed. So debacle free football gets us in the playoffs.

Of the eight I pointed two at the quarter pole, only KC looks like a certainty to fall away. Good and bad with that, as seven for six slots is pretty good odds, but it's striking how we could see a team at 12-4 miss the playoffs in the AFC. Depending on tiebreaks that could happen to Denver, San Diego, Jacksonville, or even the Steelers.

-- Weegie Thompson

Get a Grip, People (Rich)

So it's an established fact that Steeler fans have the perspective of Picasso with depth-perception issues, but this week's reaction is really taking the cake in my mind. Admittedly, Green Bay is horrible--in September I was telling anyone who'd listen that they're a 4-12 team, and I may have over-estimated their abilities (though Ahman Green was still healthy then, and they are in the Norris). However, consider these facts:

• The Steelers won by 10
• On the road
• In Lambeau Field
• With their 2 top backs combining for 5-for-13 and inactive respectively
• Against a Hall-of-Fame quarterback
• Whose skills have diminished, admittedly, but who still has his great days

One might think this would be interpreted as a positive result, but not in and around the Confluence. One blogger gave the following grades: D-line: C; LBs: D; DBs: C-. Note that the defense gave up exactly 10 points, and only had a +/- of 3, scoring a TD of its own. So, um, WHAT?! The P-G's grades are limited to "Insiders" only, but were not substantially better.

The fact is, some fans can't deal with success. They either want to distrust it and say that beating a bad team by a small margin translates into losing to better teams, or they pick out a play here and there to show that disaster lurks just behind a perceived weakness that was "exposed" based on what little success the lesser team managed to have. The bottom line is this: the other guys are on scholarship too, and no NFL team is going to score blowout wins week in, week out. There's no BCS in the NFL, and margin of victory doesn't count. The plays you give up against one team's wide receivers because you're focusing on stopping the run do not mean you'll get torched by a better passing team, because you'll be scheming more to take away that aspect when that game comes along.

Here's what the Steelers are right now: One of 5 legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the AFC, along with Indy, Cincy, Denver, and New England. Of those 5 teams, the Patriots seem like they've absorbed one too many losses this year (that loss being named Rodney Harrison) to do their thing, though I'm not counting them out until someone has put a stake with a silver bullet on the end of it through Tom Brady's heart. (Not that, as a future member of the bar, I'm literally adovcating such behavior. Much.) Cincy is up and coming in a hurry, but has exactly as much NFL playoff experience as Weegie and I do. Denver still has Jake Plummer at quarterback.

That means that the Steelers and Colts are the two teams best positioned right now (remember: we have three games against the Norris, and 3 against the once and future Brownses left) in the league's dominant conference. Halfway through a season where 3 QBs and 4 RBs have split substantial amounts of playing time, in which we've lost one game in OT and one other game at the final gun and that's it, I'll take the hell out of that.

--rich erenberg

Haunted by the Ghost of Schneck (Weegie)

Given Cowher's post-game conference, where he actually went into near tirade mode about the botched snap which resulted in the bizarre Chris Gardocki pass play, I have to think that somewhere Schneckenfraude is occurring. It's rare enough a game turns on special teams, but for it to nearly turn on a longsnapper, that's just a little odd.

Of course the entire game was a little odd. That shouldn't have happened at all that way. It should be a wake up call to the team not to take anyone lightly for the rest of the year.

Waiting for Halloween (Weegie)

The oddest thing about this clash tonight is probably how the rivalry feels here in our little town. It's not a big thing this year. You can talk about how it feels to be back on the MNF stage, but it doesn't escape the constant feeling that this game has an almost funereal buildup. It's almost like the Ravens' heart stopped beating, and now we have to make sure they're dead. With their offense basically brain-dead (J. Lewis totally misfiring, and the offense in the hands of Anthony Wright), and the two components we expect to spark them to life on defense (Reed and R. Lewis) both out, it almost seems like the Steelers have been placed here to kill zombies, not defeat an NFL team. It's a very odd feeling, a different sort of trap game awaits tonight. There's not much to look forward to here, just get clear of this game uninjured.

Football Math For (and by) Dummies (Rich)

I'm generally pretty easy on network commentators as sports fans go, because it's really hard to speak for 3 straight hours without saying something stupid no matter how smart you really are, and because all fans are pre-disposed to hate you because you aren't actively rooting for their team.

With that disclaimer, Randy Cross said something impressively stupid during the Steeler-Bengal game, probably the dumbest thing I've heard from a broadcaster all year. On the Bengals opening drive they dropped a touchdown pass, had another touchdown pass overturned by replay, and missed a short field goal. As the Steelers took possession, Cross reviewed this chain of events and proclaimed that the Bengals must really be kicking themselves, because: "that's a 17-point swing right there."

Um, NO NO NO NO NO NO! Not even a little bit!

--rich erenberg

Cincy, and the Ball, Downed Skillfully (Rich)

Huge win today. There are no two ways about it, we really needed this one. There are many things to like about this game: the defense going nuts in the second half, the continued Heath Miller emergence, Fast Willie busting loose. But I want to focus on something mundane and picayune, and which therefore has bugged me for years.

Inside of two minutes to go, the Steelers lined up in "Victory Formation," which has been standard practice since the Eagles pulled a ridiculous victory out of a fluky late return touchdown; er, I mean, since the Eagles pulled a ridiculous victory out of a fluky late return touchdown. The major distinguishing feature of this formation is the presence of a "safety" 8 yards deep, positioned to tackle anyone who might bust through with any potential fumble. No tiny detail of football has boggled my mind more than the fact that the "safety" in this formation is generally a wide receiver. Why Why Why? But today, as the Steelers went into Victory, I noticed a massive pile of hair falling out of the "safety's" helmet--yes, you guessed it, instead of a "safety," the Steelers had inserted a safety. Nice detail work there by Cowher and co.

--rich erenberg

Unintentional Comedy from Steelers.com (Rich)

The link to this story on the main page has this headline:

Advisory for Sunday’s Steelers Game; Bradshaw's Daughter to sing anthem

--rich erenberg