What to Watch for in Week 2 (Rich)

Football fans are always nervous when they know what to worry about, but on some level are more nervous when they're not sure what to be worried about. On paper, the Steelers are much better than the Texans, and should handle them. Somehow, the lack of any one big concern is even more disconcerting--because it means if something reaches up and gets us, it'll be something surprising--say, outgaining your opponent by an order of magnitude yet repeatedly turning it over for scores the other way.

The scariest Texan, no doubt, is Andre Johnson, so the nightmare scenario par excellence would be for Carr to hit Johnson on several deep balls. This presumes Ike Taylor can't stay with Johnson (which may be true) and Carr can stay upright (almost certainly not true). NFL road games are always dangerous--those of you who lost you suicide pools the first week on the Rams or Broncos are morons, because there's no reason to ever take a road team in those things. But a loss in Houston, if it happens, will be the result of the devil we don't know.

More interesting this week will be the divisional games. Cincinnati might be for real, and beating Minnesota would go a long way toward showing it. Baltimore might not be for real, and struggling in Nashville could show it. If I know anything about football, Cleveland vs. Green Bay is a matchup of eventual 4-12 teams.

Of course the other story for the week will be whether Willie Parker is a one-game wonder. The best guess here is that he isn't, but that he's also not going to continue his 2,576-yard pace. I'm guessing he goes for 90 if Duce is active, 115 if he isn't, and that Big Ben attempts at least 16 passes this time. If any Steeler offensive player has a breakout game, my vote's on Hines.

--rich erenberg

In Defense of the Tortoise (Rich)

Fans who have been burned before (and over a course of years, that's fans of pretty much every team in every sport) have a tendency to distrust success. I get that. We here at BAB will inevitably find ourselves complaining after wins this year. If you really want to play amateur psychoanalyst on a group of fans, noting what they complain about in victory might be particularly instructive.

From stillers.com this week comes this article about the Steelers' "Turtle" tendencies when leading games in the second half. In my mind, after AFC title games, Steeler Nation's biggest complaint about the Cowher Administration is its Turtling tendencies--sitting on the football when up big. This past week presented an extreme but not atypical example, as the Steelers threw two passes in the first 3 minutes of the second half, and then none for the rest of the game.

Even "Hesske," the author of the Turtling article, recognizes that the strategy has been effective. Hesske says Cowher is "5,000-1-1 when leading at halftime." I don't know about that stat, but as of the middle of last season Cowher was 70-1-1 in games where the Steelers led by 14 at any point in the game, good for third all-time.

I confess that I find the Turtling strategy maddening and even a bit boring at times. For instance, on three occasions the Steelers ran a third-down shotgun draw handoff against Tennessee, and each time I was kind of bugged, and yet was even more flabbergasted that the Titans didn't seem to know these plays were coming. On the other hand, I know enough about sample size to know that I have absolutely no right to bitch about the Philly and Atlanta games that make up the "-1-1" part of the stat above, without acknowledging that a more wide-open approach may have jeopardized at least some of the "70 [and counting]." That's not to say, either, that a wide-open "boot-to-the-throat" approach can't be effective either--note that the overly-maligned Mike Martz also appears on that top 5 list. Still, 70-1-1 is pretty compelling.

I'll leave with two observations, one in favor of the Turtle and one skeptical of it at least as utilized this week. The argument in favor is that the "Turtle" name unfairly presumes that going to an exclusively or very predominantly ground-based attack equals giving up on scoring. Exhibit A here: the Steelers scored 14 points on offense Sunday after abandoning the pass. That doesn't sound like giving up, unless you're talking about the Titan D-line. The argument against is simple: while Turtling is effective in general, the first game isn't just about winning the first game, it's about setting you up for success for the whole season. The passing game looked just fine, but there are plenty of new receivers and receivers adjusting to new roles, and at least on third and medium to long, it would have made sense to give the passing game some practice.

That said, it's still hard to argue with a 27-point margin of victory, and with 70something-1-1.

--rich erenberg

I Like It, I Love It, I Want Some More of It (Rich)

It's hard to complain about Sunday's game on any level, which kind of renders me speechless for the moment. If I had to pick something to gripe about, it would be the run defense, which was not great until the point where the Titans could no longer afford to pass. But the other guys are on scholarship too, and you've gotta think the game plan was all about containing McNair, which we did admirably. One long pass and one long drive is not a bad amount of offense to allow to a professional offense.

Today's news is not shocking--Andre Frazier played his way onto the team and Charlie Batch is back, so Nate Washington became the odd-man out. Presumably, he was the guy most likely to catch onto the practice squad. Going with 4 real WRs and a Tasker-type looks bold, but it's not as if Washington was going to be active on gameday anyway. Besides, even Quincy Morgan may have a hard time seeing the field if Heath Miller's the 4th receiver in four-wide sets. So even though it's not the move I saw coming, it feels right.

I am not the slightest bit concern that QM got no touches--he was on the team for 5 days, and we only threw 11 balls, none in the last 27 minutes of the game. I assume he's a rare 5th option, unless they have some special deep passes or reverses designed specifically for him. I'd be more worried about Hines only getting 2 catches, but again the circumstances were unusual.

One surprise to me was the presence of Bryant McFadden on the inactives, but I'm going to chalk that up to pure "numbers game" at CB rather than to any deficiencies on his part. Colclough, Taylor, and Iwuoma were all required on special teams, and the first two are apparently ahead of him on the CB depth chart anyway. If as Weegie seems to assume Willie Williams gradually has a reduced role, I wouldn't be surprised if Willie becomes the inactive CB (we'll have one every week since there are 6 on the roster) since he probably wouldn't play special teams.

--rich erenberg

After 1 game (Weegie)

From our best case/worst case, all except the Heath Miller, Quincy Morgan, and Defense issues fell on the best case. Not bad at all, and a perfect quarterback rating to boot.

I can't even say for sure whether Willie Williams played, which is good, because I did see Ike, Deshea, and Ricardo playing.

The Heath 1 for 3 with a TD is both good and bad. Good given it was as expected, and given the passing game was voluntarily shut down at the half. Bad given 1 for 3 with a TD is exactly what I expected.

The QM 0 for 0, is less good, but if Cedrick holds his own, we'll live.

-- Weegie Thompson

Five things to watch in today's kerfuffle (Rich)

1. The elevation of Big Ben's passes. As Weegie suggests, this could be a problem, and everytime a pass flies just over the head of Randle El or Wilson, the erstwhile Mr. Burress will be the first name out of color commentators' craws. (Not the craw, their craws.) Just remember that contrary to what they will be telling you: (a) Hines Ward has been our #1 WR for years, not The Tall Guy, and (b) Ben's most prolific passing game came against the Giants last year, with Plex injured, playing for neither team.

2. The rook. We like the Heath Bar. We fully expect that he's a 50-60 catch guy, at least next year if not this. Again piggy-backing on Weege, it's entirely possible for a TE to disappear after one game, but it's more often because the TE caught 3 for 35 yards and a TD on opening day, and fans overreacted because the Steelers don't never throw to the TE, they just rarely do. Tuman and Riemersma combined for 5 TDs last year, and Tuman is Jerome Bettis's favorite receiver. If Heath has the proverbial 3 for 35 and a TD, then maybe he's not catching many this year. But if instead Heath has 5 for 52 and either Tuman or Kranchick has 1 for 5 and a TD, then the TE renaissance may well be underway.

3. The O-line. Do Parker, Verron, and (gulp) Herron have running room? Does Ben have time to throw? Does the right side continue its reasonably solid preseason? Do Jeff Hartings' knees finally give up the ghost? If theses guys are good, the offense will do just fine despite itself.

4. The secondary. Having more faith in McNair, Chow and Bennett than Mr. Thompson, I'm concerned about this. We should have a deep corps of corners to play the nickel, but I don't know if anyone matches up well with Bennett deep. We're going to have to hit 20 to win today, not 7 in my book. This is subject to revision if the Titan offensive line collapses like (Editor's note: the joke that was going here has been marked "TOO SOON").

5. The long-snapping. My personal worst case scenario involves hearing Craig's computer playing calliope music every time we attempt a punt or FG, with special teams hijinks leading to one of those games where you give up 150 yards, rack up 400, and still look up late in the game and are inexplicably trying to come back from 11 down.

Honorable mention: Does Casey Hampton come back from knee surgery to be a destructive force or a Steed-esque solid plugger? Is Sean Morey playing linebacker by the end of the game? Will Phast Willie run wild? Is Pacman Jones the victim of a vicious Hines Ward block, and does someone else beat me to the "Act 1: They Meet" joke? Do we get Gus Johnson and Brent Jones despite going 15-1?

--rich erenberg

Best Case, Worst Case (Weegie)

Let's plot out the Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Steelers-Titans Game.

Issue 1: Passing Offense
Best Case: Ben figures out how to take one foot of height off his passes. Randle El finds effective space past 10 yards, and as a result Ward isn't double teamed on every play.
Worst Case: I think we've seen this already. I hope.

Issue 2: Phast Willie Parker
Best Case: Passing game works, keeping the 8th man out of the box, and he breaks two 30-yarders out.
Worst Case: Nine in the box, and he can't take the pounding.

Issue 3: Where do you hide to have your Heath?
Best Case: TD strike.
Worst Case: TD strike. It seems like every year the Steelers employ the tight end effectively, but only in the first game. So for our purposes, it doesn't matter what we see from Miller this week, it's next week that's the test.

Issue 4: Quincy Morgan
Best Case: He plugs into 4-wide, and delivers a couple receptions and something nice on kickoffs.
Worst Case: I start making jokes about this fumble being a QM Production.

Issue 5: Defense and possible injuries.
(As of T minus 12 hours, both Haggans and Williams were looking doubtful due to injuries)
Best Case: Haggans isn't that bad he can't get out there and Williams is that bad. We already have Harrison ready to step in for Porter, we really don't want to have two to bring in. Note that Andre Frazier is now back sending Charlie Batch onto the street.
Worst Case: Williams starts. As you know, I have enough issues with Willie Williams starting while healthy. A dinged up Williams just strikes me as the sports poster child for Bad Idea Jeans.

Issue 6: The game itself.
Best Case: When the Titans have the ball, you're putting a very strong defense against a very weak offense, and whatever benefits Norm Chow will have won't be seen since Polamalu spent college scrimmaging against Chow's offense. 3 TD's one each for Willie, Heath, and Hines. 24-6 Steelers.
Worst Case: Steelers offense sputters, and power punting by the NFL's second greatest player to wear #15, Craig Hentrich, keeps the Titans close. Steelers defense and special teams keep us just ahead. 9-6 Steelers.

-- Weegie Thompson

"Babies..., ships..., longsnappers." "Things that are christened" DING! (Weegie)

I am not amazed that the papers are noting a changing of the guard at longsnapper. Howeven the headline "Long-snapper Warren about to get christened" combined with the description just make it sound like a euphemism for either a hazing or a prison rape.

-- Weegie Thompson