The halfway point (Weegie)

Okay, let's update our estimates from the Quarter Pole.

Indianapolis - Still Real, still holding the lead. Is it going to be 16, 15, or 14 at the end?
Denver - Apparently I was wrong, though I'm still struggling to see how this team rolls through the second half like the first.
Cincinnati - Ahead of the Steelers on a quirk of schedule which should evaporate this weekend. The Steelers-Bengals game II will basically establish whether they're going to be dangerous in the playoffs or on the outside looking in.
New England - At this point I think we know their fate: They'll be the 4th seed. The only question is not who do they face in the first round. The only question now, will they at least make it competitive and get to 8-8.
Kansas City - With Priest out, does this make them vulnerable to being caught by the Chargers. Given their second half schedule, I think they will be.
Jacksonville - They're in as a wildcard. Their opponents between now and then: BAL, CLE, HOU, ARI, TEN, TEN, SF, IND. I can certainly see 12-4 for them.
San Diego - They may catch the Chiefs, but unless they catch the Broncos it doesn't matter. In fact, unless they go undefeated, it won't matter. The way it stacks up right now, 11-5 makes you the 7th best team in the conference, and that won't cut it.

Which leaves us with Pittsburgh. If the Steelers play mistake free football, we're looking at 14-2, 2nd seed. If they don't we're looking at as low as 12-4, 6th seed. So debacle free football gets us in the playoffs.

Of the eight I pointed two at the quarter pole, only KC looks like a certainty to fall away. Good and bad with that, as seven for six slots is pretty good odds, but it's striking how we could see a team at 12-4 miss the playoffs in the AFC. Depending on tiebreaks that could happen to Denver, San Diego, Jacksonville, or even the Steelers.

-- Weegie Thompson

Get a Grip, People (Rich)

So it's an established fact that Steeler fans have the perspective of Picasso with depth-perception issues, but this week's reaction is really taking the cake in my mind. Admittedly, Green Bay is horrible--in September I was telling anyone who'd listen that they're a 4-12 team, and I may have over-estimated their abilities (though Ahman Green was still healthy then, and they are in the Norris). However, consider these facts:

• The Steelers won by 10
• On the road
• In Lambeau Field
• With their 2 top backs combining for 5-for-13 and inactive respectively
• Against a Hall-of-Fame quarterback
• Whose skills have diminished, admittedly, but who still has his great days

One might think this would be interpreted as a positive result, but not in and around the Confluence. One blogger gave the following grades: D-line: C; LBs: D; DBs: C-. Note that the defense gave up exactly 10 points, and only had a +/- of 3, scoring a TD of its own. So, um, WHAT?! The P-G's grades are limited to "Insiders" only, but were not substantially better.

The fact is, some fans can't deal with success. They either want to distrust it and say that beating a bad team by a small margin translates into losing to better teams, or they pick out a play here and there to show that disaster lurks just behind a perceived weakness that was "exposed" based on what little success the lesser team managed to have. The bottom line is this: the other guys are on scholarship too, and no NFL team is going to score blowout wins week in, week out. There's no BCS in the NFL, and margin of victory doesn't count. The plays you give up against one team's wide receivers because you're focusing on stopping the run do not mean you'll get torched by a better passing team, because you'll be scheming more to take away that aspect when that game comes along.

Here's what the Steelers are right now: One of 5 legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the AFC, along with Indy, Cincy, Denver, and New England. Of those 5 teams, the Patriots seem like they've absorbed one too many losses this year (that loss being named Rodney Harrison) to do their thing, though I'm not counting them out until someone has put a stake with a silver bullet on the end of it through Tom Brady's heart. (Not that, as a future member of the bar, I'm literally adovcating such behavior. Much.) Cincy is up and coming in a hurry, but has exactly as much NFL playoff experience as Weegie and I do. Denver still has Jake Plummer at quarterback.

That means that the Steelers and Colts are the two teams best positioned right now (remember: we have three games against the Norris, and 3 against the once and future Brownses left) in the league's dominant conference. Halfway through a season where 3 QBs and 4 RBs have split substantial amounts of playing time, in which we've lost one game in OT and one other game at the final gun and that's it, I'll take the hell out of that.

--rich erenberg